China Quake: Toads Warning

Did you know that two days before the earthquake hit Wenchuan, a local media reported that hundreds of thousands of toads had appeared on the streets of Manzhu, a city about 60 km southeast of Wenchuan?

Report reproduced below:

Quake 'predicted' 5 years ago

By Zhu Zhe (China Daily)
Updated: 2008-05-13 06:49

A seismologist warned more than five years ago that based on historical records and animal studies, a strong earthquake was likely in Sichuan.

"Sichuan is virtually certain to experience an earthquake measuring above 7 in the next few years," Chen Xuezhong, a senior researcher with the geophysics institute of State Seismological Bureau (SSB), wrote in a paper published in December 2002, in the periodical Recent Developments in World Seismology.

The article is still available online.

In the article, Chen said Sichuan stood a big chance of being hit by a huge temblor due to its geographic location, and records since 1800 showed the average interval between major quakes in the province was about 16 years.

Since 1900, the area had experienced frequent big temblors, and records showed the longest interval between them was 19 years, with the average being 11 years, the paper said.

"However, the area hasn't seen any earthquake measuring above 7 for 26 years, since a big temblor struck its Songpan and Pingwu counties in 1976," Chen wrote.

"We must be prepared for a big earthquake after 2003."

In a telephone interview with China Daily on Monday, Chen said many seismologists had noticed the pattern, which was why he did the study.

"But the study was published as an academic paper so it didn't receive much attention," he said.

"However, we can conclude that yesterday's earthquake is in line with the rule and it's natural."

Zhang Guomin, another researcher with the SSB's earthquake science institute, also said on Monday that Wenchuan is prone to earthquakes as it is on a major fault line - the south-north fault line that runs from Yunnan to Ningxia.

The county is also on a small fault line known as the Longmen mountain earthquake belt, he said.

Zhang also warned residents in earthquake-affected of possible aftershocks, which could be as devastating as the main tremor.

"A big earthquake can release most, but not all of the underground energy, and its aftershocks may cause natural disasters," he said.

Aftershocks are generally weaker than the main quake, but buildings that have already been damaged are prone to collapse in an aftershock, he said.

Meanwhile, ahead of Monday's deadly earthquake, many people reported seeing unusual animal behavior.

On Saturday, local media reported that hundreds of thousands of toads had appeared on the streets of Manzhu, a city about 60 km southeast of Wenchuan.

A resident surnamed Liu was quoted as saying he saw countless toads killed by passing vehicles as they crossed roads, and that he had never seen anything like it.

Similarly, on Friday, people in Taizhou, Jiangsu province, also said they saw tens of thousands of toads on the city's streets, local media said.

Experts have said animals can give advance notice of quakes, as they sense tremors before they happen.

Unfortunately, no one heeded the toads' "warning".

In response to questions from the public about the reptilian swarms, officials in both Mianzhu and Taizhou said there was nothing unusual about them.

"The move is because of the change of weather," Shu Shi, director of the Mianzhu forestry bureau, was quoted as saying by local media.