Bukit Gantang: PAS to thump Umno by 3,000
Of the three by-elections that will take place tomorrow, perhaps the one that has the greatest significance for new Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is the Bukit Gantang by-election.
Whether one interprets the eventual outcome as a vote of confidence for or against Najib’s premiership or the way he managed to engineer the takeover of the Perak state government, the results will be seen as a referendum on Najib, one way or the other.
As such, if my prediction of a Pakatan victory by approximately 3,000 votes were to materialise, then it would not be a very positive start to Najib’s premiership especially if this were to be accompanied by a loss in the Bukit Selambau by-election as well.
This result will be driven by a small increase in the level of Malay support for BN (compared to 2008) but will be more than overwhelmed by a slightly larger drop in its level of non-Malay support.
BN will get a small post-Umno general assembly boost that compensates for the sympathy factor that is associated with the PAS candidate, ousted Perak menteri besar Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin. But the perception that the ‘takeover’ of the Perak state government was ‘illegal’ and ‘unjust’ will hurt the ruling coalition more among the non-Malay voters.
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